INSIGHTS

Latest.

Every note ever published, with the position disclosed at the time, is in the publication record. New notes appear in the RSS feed.

NYSE: CCL

INITIATION

Carnival Corporation: the recovery is priced in, the re-rating isn't

The recovery is priced in; the credit re-rating is not. Two of three agencies rate Carnival investment grade, yet it trades at half Royal Caribbean's multiple.

Flutter Entertainment plc: a global compounder navigating a contained shift

A still-dominant US sportsbook in a deliberate investment year, beside a larger, insulated International business earning three-quarters of group profit.

INTEL FAB WATCH · ISSUE 02

Intel Fab Watch, Issue 02: building and subtracting at the same time

Intel committed to its next node without a customer, bought out its most productive fab and guided capex higher — while closing or cancelling three plants.

Uber Technologies, Inc.: pricing 6% growth into a 20%+ compounder

The market prices 6% perpetual cash flow growth for a business compounding bookings above 20%. Either something breaks it — or the shares are mispriced.

INTEL FAB WATCH · ISSUE 01

Intel Fab Watch, Issue 01: the baseline issue

Manufacturing firsts are arriving on schedule while external foundry revenue stays at 1.3% of total — where the buildout stands as of mid-July 2026.

Adobe: results keep improving, the multiple keeps falling

Revenue grew 13% and AI-first ARR more than tripled, yet the shares trade at a five-year-low multiple, some 60% below their 2024 peak.

Flutter Entertainment plc: a sum-of-the-parts case for a contrarian long

Valuing FanDuel against DraftKings and International against Entain implies about $137 a share against a $106 quote — if the margin squeeze is temporary.