Insights
13 notes on 6 companies. Each company is a thread; follow one.
Every note ever published, with the position disclosed at the time, is in the publication record.
All notesThe Adobe threadThe Carnival threadThe Flutter threadThe Intel threadThe Porsche threadThe Uber thread
13 notes, newest first2 notes, newest first2 notes, newest first3 notes, newest first3 notes, newest first1 note, newest first2 notes, newest firstUber: robots, start your engines!
Volume is slowing, cash is strong. On 20% growth, the firm's case, without the float, its model gives about $89 a share against $68.78. The firm stays long.
7 tables · 17 chartsFlutter after Q3: who keeps the $100?
Flutter's value turns on the courts: about $61–$74 a share if Kalshi wins, $86 if they stay split, $105–$120 if the states win. The firm stays long.
14 tables · 7 chartsIntel Fab Watch, Issue 03: revenue before the customer
External foundry revenue rose to $411M, 2.5% of total. Intel credits the rise mainly to a non-recurring contract; $126M of the total is Altera.
4 tables · 5 chartsPorsche: a turbocharged recovery?
Porsche is shrinking to earn more per car. The price already pays for the plan on time; upside needs prices per car to hold through the 2027 trough.
14 tables · 9 chartsCarnival is buying its shares. Moody's is still waiting
Record yields, but the fuel premium held and Q3's buybacks stalled the deleveraging. The firm stays long while Moody's stays in reach.
5 tables · 9 chartsAdobe is buying users. The bill comes due in 2027
Adobe is trading paid growth for reach. The firm stays long while that looks like strategy rather than decline. December is the first real test.
11 tables · 6 chartsCarnival Corporation: the recovery is priced in, the re-rating isn't
The recovery is priced in; the credit re-rating is not. Two of three agencies rate Carnival investment grade, yet it trades at half Royal Caribbean's multiple.
13 tables · 3 chartsFlutter Entertainment plc: a global compounder navigating a contained shift
A still-dominant US sportsbook in a deliberate investment year, beside a larger, insulated International business earning three-quarters of group profit.
10 tables · 4 chartsIntel Fab Watch, Issue 02: building and subtracting at the same time
Intel committed to its next node without a customer, bought out its most productive fab and guided capex higher — while closing or cancelling three plants.
5 tables · 3 chartsUber Technologies, Inc.: pricing 6% growth into a 20%+ compounder
The market prices 6% perpetual cash flow growth for a business compounding bookings above 20%. Either something breaks it — or the shares are mispriced.
23 tablesIntel Fab Watch, Issue 01: the baseline issue
Manufacturing firsts are arriving on schedule while external foundry revenue stays at 1.3% of total — where the buildout stands as of mid-July 2026.
1 table · 2 chartsAdobe: results keep improving, the multiple keeps falling
Revenue grew 13% and AI-first ARR more than tripled, yet the shares trade at a five-year-low multiple, some 60% below their 2024 peak.
1 tableFlutter Entertainment plc: a sum-of-the-parts case for a contrarian long
Valuing FanDuel against DraftKings and International against Entain implies about $137 a share against a $106 quote — if the margin squeeze is temporary.
4 tables